Still -EV but getting close. In fact, this edge is so small now, it only takes some basic line shopping to move into +EV territory. Let’s say one book offers the Dodgers at Over 101.5 -110, and one offers Over 101.5 -105. Just having that one leg at -105 increases our EV from -1.6% to +0.6%.
Where Can I Bet on Correlated Parlays?
Unfortunately, most sportsbooks are wise enough to recognize the correlation and don’t offer parlays on season win totals. A few do, however.
5Dimes is one of the offshore books that allows parlaying of season win totals for divisional rivals in the MLB (and other sports). Below we’re sharing a couple (significantly) +EV parlays that you can hit on 5Dimes. While most people have a single go-to sportsbook, this is another instance where having multiple sportsbooks at your disposal gives you a long-term advantage.
Plus-EV Parlays at 5Dimes
Parlay #1: Phillies Over 84.5 (-105) and Marlins Under 64.5 (+115)
Breakeven %: 23.8%
Est. Win %: 27.2%
Expected Value (%): 14.3%
Analysis: Across six different sportsbooks (offshore and U.S.) the next-best odds to be found on Marlins U64.5 is +104 (FanDuel and Pinnacle). 5Dimes is 11-cents better than the next best offering on the Marlins. Most books are offering the Phillies at 85.5 with odds between -110 and +110. We’d rather take the 5Dimes line of Over 84.5/-105 and spend the 15 cents to cross the 85 instead of taking Over 85.5/+110 based on our assumed push probability of 4.5% for win totals. With the correlative properties increasing our win % an addition ~2%, we find there to be considerable value with this parlay.
Parlay #2: Cubs Over 85.5 (+100) and Cardinals Under 86.5 (+110)
Breakeven %: 23.8%
Est. Win %: 28.0%
Expected Value (%): 17.7%
Analysis: This one is more about the value on the Cardinals that the Cubs, to be honest. The offshore books are sitting at a heavily juiced 87.5 for the Cardinals under (Pinnacle U87.5 -158). FanDuel is the only other book offering Under 86.5, and they are offering -110. At +110, there is tremendous value on the Cardinals leg. The Cubs leg isn’t as profitable, but still approximately 7-cents better than consensus.
Conclusion: Using this framework can lead to endless correlative parlay possibilities with +EV, but it is critical to have multiple sportsbook accounts - finding the right sportsbook to take your bet is a key blocker from extracting value.
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