What does bankroll % mean?
Your bet size should be a function of your bankroll. We use Kelly criterion to calculate this percentage, which is optimized to maximize long-term gains and minimize risk. While the Kelly criterion relies on the assumption that you definitely know what your edge is, we practice half-Kelly bankroll management to compensate for the uncertainty around our calculated edge.
What does "+XXX or better" mean?
There's two things to consider when we say '+125 or better'. +125 is the bare-minimum odds in which we believe with strong confidence that the bet will have a positive EV. The second thing to consider is "or better". The better odds you get (the higher the number), the more value you are extracting from the sportsbook. This is why signing up for multiple sportsbooks is critical to maximizing gains.
You recommended I bet 1% of my bankroll on a particular game at +130, but right now I'm getting +135 odds. How does this change my bet? What about +125?
We've built out a handy bet calculator to do all the work for you. As your odds change, your bet size should change too. Check out our calculator here.
I have a bankroll of $1,000. You're recommending I bet 0.6% of my bankroll on this game, which is $6. Are you serious?
Yes, which is why we recommend several games- bet them all at $6 each or whatever the recommendation is. Your bet size will grow as your bankroll grows.
Why an email newsletter? Why not post everything on Twitter like everybody else?
We’ll post a pick of the day on Twitter, but have you ever noticed that everyone’s records on Twitter seems to refresh or change after a few weeks? Email is the only way our subscribers can track our records with full confidence that we aren’t changing anything. Once the email is out, our record can’t be manipulated or altered.
You guys lose 55%+ of your bets and keep betting on the worst teams in baseball. Why should I trust you?
We don't expect you to trust us - that's why we email you all of our picks (paper trail that can't be altered), and have a general ledger that shows our 2020 MLB bet history, including transactional data such as bet slips, bet amounts, and betting odds.
Why are you giving this away for free?
There's plenty of money for us to take from sportsbooks, and we believe it's a conflict of interest for us to sell picks.
You guys are down $50,000 this year and 0-10 in your last 10 picks. How do you consider yourselves pros?
We make 1000s of bets a year, and when you do that you're going to go on tough losing streaks. It happens. The goal is sustainable profits over a long period of time, so it's important to focus on the big picture and not get too low from the losses.
You guys are up $50,000 this year and 10-0 in your last 10 picks. How do I become pro like you?
We make 1000s of bets a year, and when you do that you're going to go on awesome winning streaks. It happens. The goal is sustainable profits over a long period of time, so it's important to focus on the big picture and not get too high on the success.
Ready to see what we're betting? Subscribe at cleat-street.com. Questions? Email us at firstname.lastname@example.org